CTCOLIC January 2005 Meeting Minutes
Meeting called to order at 8:34 PM on January 25, 2005
Members in attendance:
Minutes, Treasurer's report approved
Randy has been working on a website, to be hosted at CTCOLIC.org. The schedule
for the new year of studies is completed and will be posted at this site
shortly. Work on other areas of the site will proceed.
Received updates on PFE BBBY ACS GNTX. Discussion centered on GNTX numbers,
reasons for slowing of growth, need to watch carefully for uptrend and relative
Elections of officers.
Motion by Karen, second by Jason, to hold voting "live time" and dispense with
10 day email voting period. All in favor.
Motion by Randy, second by Brian, to approve the slate of officers as follows:
Presiding Partner - Jason
Asst. Presiding Partner - Avi
Asst. Presiding Partner: Communications - Randy
Financial Partner - Larry
Asst. Financial Partner - Bob
Recording Partner - Karen
Asst. Recording Partner - Bill P.
All were in favor.
Teal Team report on Fiserv;
Discussion on selected growth rates for revenues, and earnings per share.
Selected growth rates came out with estimates higher than VL. Growth from
acquisition vs. organic growth, and sustainability of this growth. recent
organic growth lower than hoped. Comparison of VL "annual growth rates" figures
and their actual dollar estimates. Risks involved in counting on growth via
acquisition. Decided that Randy will watch the company for awhile and see how
company expectations in regards to growth pan out....company has stated they
expect roughly 7% organic growth and 7% acquisition groth over the next 3-5
Discussion followed on what to do with some of the cash we have built up.
BBBY was brought up as a suitable buy at this time. Motion made by Karen, second
by Brian, to purchase an additional 50 shares. Motioned passed, 6 ayes.
Meeting adjourned at 9:59PM.
Next team up: Blue team, Education
[08:34 PM] wbprugh: Let's log in, please.
[08:34 PM] *** bob76109 has left the chat.
[08:34 PM] *** bob76109 has been invited to the group chat.
[08:34 PM] Jason: Jason Ramage
[08:34 PM] wbprugh: And is someone making a log of the meeting?
[08:34 PM] Jason: I have a log
[08:34 PM] wbprugh: Bill Prugh
[08:34 PM] *** bob76109 has joined the chat.
[08:34 PM] BrianLWA: Brian Lewis
[08:34 PM] PapaDuke01: Larry Duke
[08:34 PM] holtinpa: Randy Holt
[08:34 PM] bob76109: bob tesch
[08:34 PM] mosycat2: Karen Phillips
[08:35 PM] Jason: Avi must be watching American Idol
[08:35 PM] wbprugh: Or the KU basketball game.
[08:35 PM] Jason: KU?
[08:35 PM] Jason: Kansas?
[08:35 PM] wbprugh: Where else?
[08:35 PM] Jason: better than watching UK
<Approval of November Minutes>
[08:35 PM] wbprugh: Minutes of last (Nov) meeting - approved as prepared?
[08:36 PM] holtinpa: We're not in Kansas anymore Dorthy
[08:36 PM] mosycat2: We have a quorum...seven members needed.
[08:36 PM] wbprugh: Treasurer's report was posted on Noca - any questions?
[08:36 PM] mosycat2: No problems noted with minutes at this time.
[08:37 PM] Jason: no questions with treasurer's report
<Old Business: Web Site, Study Schedule>
[08:37 PM] wbprugh: Old business: status of new web page?
[08:37 PM] Jason: Randy, Avi, and I are talking about that
[08:37 PM] holtinpa: I downloaded the old web page to my local computer to begin
[08:38 PM] Jason: or have been... I haven't talked with them in a few weeks
[08:38 PM] wbprugh: CTCOLIC.com domain name is registered as I recall.
[08:38 PM] holtinpa: We are going to use CTCOLIC.org.
[08:38 PM] holtinpa: .com means a commercial venture
[08:38 PM] mosycat2: Thanks Randy. I will appreciate having a site where I can
check and see who's up for reporting.
[08:38 PM] wbprugh: Hey - good lead in to . . .
[08:39 PM] wbprugh: Old business: update of schedule for stock & education
reports, it's done, right?
[08:39 PM] holtinpa: The schedule is done.
[08:39 PM] Jason: I believe we ironed that out at the last meeting
[08:40 PM] Jason: Is it up on the site now?
[08:40 PM] *** bob76109 has been invited to the group chat.
[08:40 PM] wbprugh: And it was emailed, I (we) just need to find it. It was not
on the web page last time I looked.
[08:40 PM] holtinpa: There is not any place to post it yet, perhaps it can be
one of the first things we post
[08:40 PM] Jason: guess it wouldn't take long to find out....
[08:40 PM] *** bob76109 has left the chat.
[08:40 PM] wbprugh: Before we leave, someone give us the schedule for Feb &
March to remind us all, please.
[08:41 PM] holtinpa: I would like to have a discussion about the new web site
but do not want to take time from the meeting
[08:41 PM] Jason: As far as what to include on the site?
[08:42 PM] holtinpa: I could put together a proposal for a process to proceed
and send it in email for discussion
[08:42 PM] *** mosycat2 has been invited to the group chat.
[08:42 PM] holtinpa: Oops, we have ctcolic.net
[08:43 PM] NYC But4U: <---as a point of information there is an ad on right now,
not ctcolic.org but ctcolic.net
[08:43 PM] Jason: that sounds good to me... that's something we can talk about
over email easier
<Stock Updates: PFE, BBBY, ACS, GNTX>
[08:43 PM] wbprugh: I show stock updates or reports on PFE, BBBY, ACS posted
[08:44 PM] *** mosycat2 has left the chat.
[08:44 PM] wbprugh: PFE is a hold, BBBY is a possible buy, ACS is a possible
[08:44 PM] Jason: ACS is just barely a buy... didn't it just drop below the "buy
line" by a buck or two?
[08:45 PM] holtinpa: GNTX is getting close to a sell. Its growth is looking like
[08:45 PM] *** PapaDuke01 has left the chat.
[08:45 PM] Jason: I prefer having more of a comfort zone before jumping in
(well, we've already jumped in, but jumping in further)
[08:45 PM] *** bob76109 has been invited to the group chat.
[08:45 PM] *** PapaDuke01 has been invited to the group chat.
[08:46 PM] *** bob76109 has joined the chat.
[08:46 PM] *** PapaDuke01 has joined the chat.
[08:46 PM] wbprugh: Are we ready to elect officers?
[08:46 PM] BrianLWA: Odd about GNTX --- according to the PERT summary report,
it's in the Buy zone ...
[08:47 PM] *** mosycat2 has been invited to the group chat.
[08:47 PM] *** mosycat2 has joined the chat.
[08:47 PM] mosycat2: Am I back?
[08:47 PM] Jason: we had a few people get bumped
[08:47 PM] wbprugh: Seems we have several folks jumping in and off tonight - may
be the weather.
[08:47 PM] Jason: hi Karen
[08:47 PM] holtinpa: Pat Lang and I had a brief discussion about GNTX. The
PERT-A charts and numbers are looking bleax. We thought we would give it another
quarter based on the news
[08:47 PM] Jason: too cold
[08:47 PM] mosycat2: :-)
[08:48 PM] wbprugh: So GNTX is "watch closely" for now, thanks for clarifying.
[08:48 PM] BrianLWA: Randy, if I'm understanding you correctly you're not
disputing the SSG data that shows GNTX in the buy zone, you just don't like the
quarterly trends as shown on PERT-A --- is that correct?
[08:48 PM] BrianLWA: (note that I know nothing about that GNTX SSG data, I'm
[08:48 PM] holtinpa: That is correct
[08:48 PM] mosycat2: That's a good idea Randy...GNTX numbers have to be taken in
context with auto industry sales.
[08:48 PM] holtinpa: I am also saying that the news does not look good for GNTX
in the short term and waiting for a quarter may allow it to rebound
[08:49 PM] mosycat2: If I read stuff correctly, GNTX numbers were down, but good
relative to overall auto sales
[08:50 PM] holtinpa: They are relative tothe auto inventories being built up.
They need to have more sales and until they do, the factories are slowing, and
therefore buying fewer auto dimming mirrors
[08:50 PM] *** bob76109 has left the chat.
[08:50 PM] *** bob76109 has been invited to the group chat.
[08:50 PM] BrianLWA: I guess my inclination is to not buy when the trends are
down, but if I'm satisfied with the logic behind why the trends are down ---
that doesn't cause me to sell.
[08:50 PM] holtinpa: There is also some competition in the wings
[08:50 PM] mosycat2: Good explanation Brian!
[08:50 PM] holtinpa: I agree, that is why I believe we should wait a quarter or
two and see what happens
[08:51 PM] Jason: I'm curious about which companies GNTX supplies.... nothing we
have to answer now though
[08:51 PM] BrianLWA: VL isn't all that overall optimistic for the near term, but
is optimistic over the longer term.
[08:51 PM] holtinpa: GM
[08:51 PM] Jason: only GM?
[08:51 PM] BrianLWA: Here's one VL comment that relates: "We expect earnings
growth to resume in 2005, thanks to strong sales overseas, particularly in Asia,
and to increased penetration of the huge mid-sized car market."
[08:51 PM] holtinpa: A host of others butthat is one that stuck oput in my mind
[08:51 PM] mosycat2: GNTX has 80% of the market for mirrors; they supply many
[08:52 PM] Jason: ok... hopefully companies that are growing in market share
[08:52 PM] *** bob76109 has joined the chat.
[08:52 PM] *** bob76109 has been invited to the group chat.
[08:52 PM] BrianLWA: Watching for the next couple of quarters sounds like a good
thing to me too. Of course, our stock watchers are watching their stocks
quarter-by-quarter anyway, no? :-P
[08:52 PM] holtinpa: Yes!
[08:53 PM] Jason: that's only every three months :)
[08:53 PM] holtinpa: I get stock news delivered to my electronic implant
<Election of Officers>
[08:53 PM] wbprugh: Will somone post the new officers names and will someone
move that we waive voting by email and approve the nominees, if we can move to
that order of business.
[08:54 PM] Jason: stock news delivered to your pacemaker?
[08:54 PM] holtinpa: Yeah, some days I do not do so good
[08:54 PM] mosycat2: I make a motion that we waive email ballotting and vote
live here at the meeting for new officers.
[08:54 PM] Jason: bad for your heart if Wall Street is down
[08:55 PM] Jason: second Karen's motion
[08:55 PM] Jason: Here are the nominations:
Presiding Partner - Jason
Asst. Presiding Partner - Avi
Asst. Presiding Partner: Communications - Randy
Financial Partner - Larry
Asst. Financial Partner - Bob
Recording Partner - Karen
Asst. Recording Partner - Bill P.
[08:56 PM] wbprugh: Discuss on the motion to elect new officers, or are we ready
[08:56 PM] wbprugh: Thanks for posting the names, also.
[08:56 PM] holtinpa: What does Asst. Presiding Partner: Communications do?
[08:56 PM] Jason: no problem
[08:56 PM] Jason: that's webmaster
[08:56 PM] Jason: just the web site, what you're already doing
[08:56 PM] holtinpa: okay
[08:57 PM] wbprugh: Will someone get the Value Line book out so Jason can take
the oath of office after the vote?
[08:57 PM] wbprugh: I will call the question if we are ready to vote.
[08:57 PM] holtinpa: I thought we used toe NAIC values
[08:57 PM] Jason: I didn't know I was being inoogurated
[08:57 PM] holtinpa: perhaps ignored
[08:58 PM] holtinpa: I make a motion to vote
[08:58 PM] Jason: we need to vote on Karen's motion first, right?
[08:58 PM] wbprugh: I call the question, please vote yes or no on the motion to
vote in the chat room.
[08:58 PM] BrianLWA: Aye
[08:58 PM] Jason: aye
[08:58 PM] wbprugh: Yes, thanks for the reminder.
[08:58 PM] bob76109: aye
[08:58 PM] holtinpa: yes
[08:58 PM] mosycat2: aye
[08:58 PM] PapaDuke01: aye
[08:58 PM] wbprugh: Yes.
[08:58 PM] BrianLWA: Avi, wake up and stop watching American Idol (you have no
[08:58 PM] wbprugh: Next a motion to approve the nominees is in order and a
[08:59 PM] holtinpa: Motion
[08:59 PM] BrianLWA: I move we approve the slate as stated
[08:59 PM] BrianLWA: Or second.
[08:59 PM] BrianLWA: Or whatever
[08:59 PM] wbprugh: Please vote on the motion to accept the nominees.
[08:59 PM] Jason: I move that American Idol sucks
[08:59 PM] wbprugh: Yes
[08:59 PM] BrianLWA: Aye
[08:59 PM] holtinpa: Yes
[08:59 PM] Jason: ;-)
[08:59 PM] Jason: aye
[08:59 PM] PapaDuke01: aye
[08:59 PM] bob76109: yes
[08:59 PM] BrianLWA: (that was an Aye to both motions ...)
[09:00 PM] mosycat2: aye
[09:00 PM] wbprugh: Motion passes, and we officially pass the wet trout to
[09:00 PM] mosycat2: Congratulations
[09:01 PM] Jason: and I'll slap Avi first for watching American Idol and not
voting so far
[09:01 PM] wbprugh: I rest my gavel and will sit back and let the new officers,
having been sworn in, assume their duties. Phew, I'm beat.
[09:01 PM] wbprugh: Will the new Pres please take over.
[09:01 PM] NYC But4U: a belated Aye
[09:01 PM] Jason: yes, next item on agenda is Teal Team's report
[09:01 PM] NYC But4U: (American Idol is over)
[09:02 PM] Jason: (Amazing Race is on)
<Teal Team Report: FISV>
[09:02 PM] holtinpa: We have decided to report on FISERV, however without Joan,
I am not sure it would be done justice
[09:02 PM] Jason: We figured out it was FactSet that the club owned, and not
[09:03 PM] holtinpa: Did everyone ready the reports we forwarded?
[09:03 PM] PapaDuke01: Great Report you and Joan sent to the list
[09:03 PM] wbprugh: The buy range in the teal report was very close to my land
club's buy range, and
[09:03 PM] holtinpa: Thanks Larry! Joan is great at this stuff
[09:03 PM] mosycat2: Yes, I read your stuff, and it agreed with everything else
I had read a couple months ago.
[09:03 PM] wbprugh: we have owned FISV now for some time. Should be buy more?
[09:03 PM] BrianLWA: I have to disagree some with the overall conclusion.
[09:03 PM] BrianLWA: The SSG wasn't complete in the judgment, but for me the
growth rates were too high.
[09:03 PM] BrianLWA: VL predicts revenues of $5.425 billion in 07 - 08. That's
well below the 15% growth rates in the SSG that was sent round.
[09:04 PM] BrianLWA: My hasty SSG gets this stock in the hold zone at current
price, U/D ratio of 2.1 to 1.
[09:04 PM] BrianLWA: Sorry I didn't look at this before the meeting.
[09:04 PM] holtinpa: The SSG was set at 15% and another was followed with 14.3%
[09:05 PM] BrianLWA: Right, and to stay at or below VL's revenue prediction, you
have to grow sales at more like 8% from here.
[09:05 PM] wbprugh: I have the SSG dated 1/21 with the 14.3% in it, thanks.
[09:05 PM] BrianLWA: Preferred procedure for me went from there to a 9.2% EPS
growth rate getting out to $2.91 in 2008.
[09:05 PM] holtinpa: The growth rates came from a couple of sources. There was
S&P at about 13-15% and Argus (who always seems high) at 16%
[09:05 PM] BrianLWA: Yup, that's why they call it judgment --- I'm not asking
others to agree, just stating my methodology.
[09:06 PM] BrianLWA: Unless I have a good reason, I don't estimate future
revenues higher than the VL analyst does.
[09:06 PM] mosycat2: From my reading and researcxh, my personal study came to
14%...a combo of 7% growth from acquisition and 7% internal growth
[09:06 PM] BrianLWA: Everything else sort of flowed from there. That, and using
the recent severe market low in section 4B.
[09:07 PM] BrianLWA: Right, Karen. Growth via acquisition can definitely make
this stuff harder to analyse. A related question is:
[09:07 PM] BrianLWA: If you grow at 15% via substantial M&A, should you expect a
15% EPS growth rate too?
[09:07 PM] BrianLWA: Depends on how you pay for your acquistions and how much
efficiencies you can squeeze out over time.
[09:07 PM] Jason: Look at how they have done in the past with acquisitions
[09:08 PM] holtinpa: The report did say that the growth rate assumed a health
organic growth, which they have not been able to demonstrate
[09:08 PM] Jason: usually you can squeeze some efficiencies out over a few years
[09:08 PM] BrianLWA: I did not spend a ton of time looking over this; I'm just
saying that at first blush, my reaction is one of discomfort at seeing the buy
zone dependant on growing sales faster than VL predicts
[09:08 PM] Jason: FISV should be benefitting from Check 21 too
[09:08 PM] Jason: the electronic processing of paper checks
[09:09 PM] BrianLWA: That should be factored into VL's analysis though, no?
[09:09 PM] Jason: I'm sure it is
[09:09 PM] Jason: most of it is old news by now, but it's also something that
should provide an ongoing need for the technology
[09:09 PM] BrianLWA: To be clear, I'm not surrendering my judgment to VL here,
just capping how optimistic I am by what they're predicting --- as a measure of
[09:09 PM] mosycat2: Check 21 just started 2 months ago, but I think everyone is
required to process that way now. It's a very big deal in the processing world
[09:11 PM] wbprugh: Why is the VL growth rate the benchmark - just because it's
there? It seems like VL is treated as a minimum rate in many cases.
[09:11 PM] mosycat2: Brian, I know you would never surrender your judgment to
[09:11 PM] Jason: The PERT isn't showing a decline or rise in profit margins
[09:12 PM] BrianLWA: I should say that I really appreciate the inclusion of so
many reports to compare too --- M*, VL, S&P, Argus. I great suite of material
[09:12 PM] holtinpa: If I look at the earnings rate from VL is shows 18%. Am I
[09:13 PM] Jason: It really helps to know what each of those analysts is
[09:13 PM] BrianLWA: Randy, if you're look at the lower left box, I just ignore
that -- it's misleading.
[09:13 PM] holtinpa: Ohhhhh, that explains my pacemaker problems
[09:13 PM] BrianLWA: Just look at what VL predicts for 07 - 09 in the annual
rates at far right. Compare that to the sales you have predicted for that time
[09:14 PM] BrianLWA: I encourage everyone to look at both "what bulls say" and
"what bears say" in the M* report that Randy sent.
[09:14 PM] mosycat2: Ok, you can rip me apart here but...
[09:15 PM] mosycat2: when I look at the VL $$$ figure, I sort of take it to be
the midpoint of 07-09, or 2008...and we want to go to 2009 in the SSG now,
[09:15 PM] BrianLWA: The "bears say" bit has some daunting stuff for me. Limited
internal growth, signs they've been overpaying for acquisitions, stealing market
share is difficult, price competition
[09:15 PM] BrianLWA: Karen, not "ripping", but the SSG as sent out goes out to
2008. That's right in between 07 - 09.
[09:16 PM] BrianLWA: And we don't need to be that precise --- predictions out
that far are often wildly wrong. It's just a way to keep from being too
[09:16 PM] mosycat2: OK
[09:16 PM] BrianLWA: If VL isn't that optimistic about future revenues, then I
want to be bloody confident if I'm more confident there.
[09:17 PM] mosycat2: True
[09:18 PM] holtinpa: VL is optimistic in their writeup. They state the company
has a stong 3-5 year earning-growth prospect (lower right)
[09:18 PM] Jason: hey, FISV just got the Fullerton Community Bank contract....
nothing to worry about
[09:19 PM] BrianLWA: To be fair here, I'm not saying I wouldn't invest in FISV.
You can find negatives and things to worry about for any stock. I'd look to get
it a bit cheaper though.
[09:19 PM] holtinpa: I would be happy to keep an eye on this stock
[09:20 PM] mosycat2: What does VL have for revenues?
[09:20 PM] holtinpa: a 1-2 minute report every month or so.
[09:20 PM] holtinpa: I think I am reading 5425 in 07-09
[09:20 PM] wbprugh: I like having quality stocks on a Watch list until someone
says to stop watching it.
[09:21 PM] Jason: We do have a few on our watch list... I'm watching NYB
[09:21 PM] Jason: I think they have earnings coming out this month, or just came
out.... need to update that one
[09:22 PM] holtinpa: FISV has earning out in a couple days. I believe tomorrow
[09:22 PM] BrianLWA: Yes, $5.425 billion (5425) in 07 - 09. If you treat that
value as the 2008 sales, then you've got a sales growth rate a little above 8%.
Well below 15%.
[09:22 PM] mosycat2: Wow, that's like only an 8.3% rate of growth for
revenues...I wonder why it's so low compared to all the written forecasts about
acquisition growth and internal growth
[09:23 PM] holtinpa: So why is VL estimates in the lower left box (which is in
lione with other analysts) so much different?
[09:23 PM] BrianLWA: Ah, one difference to be aware of --- we have three
quarters now towards a new FY. So the growth rate to get to 5425 depends a lot
on whether you're projecting from the last fiscal year, or from the latest
[09:23 PM] Jason: the M* report calls for 6% internal growth
[09:24 PM] BrianLWA: VL's lower left box is an estimate that starts in the
recent past, not in the present. That can sometimes skew things a lot.
[09:24 PM] PapaDuke01: Sorry, got to run. Karen has my proxy. Good night all.
[09:24 PM] mosycat2: the company itself, in the last conference call, was
estimating 7% internal growth longterm...
[09:24 PM] *** PapaDuke01 has left the chat.
[09:24 PM] BrianLWA: Good night, Larry.
[09:25 PM] BrianLWA: If we expect 6% to 7% organic growth, then the question is
what kind of M&A growth is sustainable, and how much they'll pay (or overpay
...) for the acquisitions.
[09:25 PM] BrianLWA: I'm not suggesting that the growth is capped at the organic
growth rate. But VL seems to think it's not too much higher than that from here
[09:25 PM] Jason: definitely better to be conservative about that.... a good
management team will wait for timely acquisitions at the right price
[09:26 PM] BrianLWA: Right, Jason, but it can be a devil's tradeoff.
[09:26 PM] Jason: is that like a devil's advocate?
[09:26 PM] BrianLWA: If M&A is a big part of your growth strategy, on the one
hand you have to be disciplined as you say.
[09:26 PM] BrianLWA: OTOH, if you find everything too expensive to buy, then
your growth rate decelerates. Wall street brings your stock price down
[09:27 PM] BrianLWA: And if you've been paying for acquisitions using your
(possibly inflated) shares to purchase other companies, you can't do that any
more. Viscious circle ...
[09:27 PM] Jason: well, Wall Street will just have to deal with it, won't they?
(that's what I would say, but then I'm not the CEO)
[09:27 PM] BrianLWA: I'm not saying that's what's happening or going to happen
here, but it's a risk when M&A gowth is significant.
[09:28 PM] mosycat2: I definitely have to defer to Brian on M&A as he's studied
it extensively and I have not. Could the overpaying be what's causing the profit
margin to lower slightly the past couple of years?
[09:29 PM] BrianLWA: Well, this from M*:
[09:29 PM] Jason: well, if the share become highly inflated and that does appear
to be the case (that they are using the overvalued shares to make acquisitions)
then you've got an unsustainable situation already
[09:29 PM] BrianLWA: "There are already signs that Fiserv is overpaying for
[09:29 PM] BrianLWA: "Its CNS acquisition price was twice the level of CNS'
[09:29 PM] BrianLWA: "This phenomenon will only worsen as Fiserv tries to get
the same rate of acquisition growth off a larger base of sales."
[09:29 PM] holtinpa: There internal growth has trended higher over the last year
(9% over 3%)
[09:30 PM] Jason: but that's just one example... there could be something less
obvious about CNS that made it worth what FISV paid (just thinking out loud)
[09:30 PM] Jason: well, do we want to close up discussion on this?
[09:31 PM] BrianLWA: Could be, Jason. But given that M* used it as an example,
they presumeably don't think of anything along that line --- but then I'm the
last person to be defending analyst's due diligence ... :-D
[09:31 PM] BrianLWA: Yes, I'm content to close discussion.
[09:31 PM] Jason: we could vote to add FISV to the watch list if Randy or
someone wants to watch it
[09:31 PM] holtinpa: Close
[09:32 PM] holtinpa: I would be willing to watch it. I may have a few things to
pass by the group via email during the month as I come up with questins or
comments. If you do not mind
<Vote to Add FISV to Watch List>
[09:32 PM] Jason: ok, I move to add FISV to watch list
[09:32 PM] BrianLWA: If we minded we wouldn't be in this club ... ;-)
[09:33 PM] Jason: any second?
[09:33 PM] wbprugh: A mind is a terrible thing to make up sometimes.
[09:33 PM] BrianLWA: if we have to vote on this then sure, I'll second
[09:34 PM] Jason: I think we've voted in the past
[09:34 PM] Jason: call the vote for watching FISV
[09:34 PM] BrianLWA: Aye
[09:34 PM] Jason: aye
[09:34 PM] holtinpa: aye
[09:34 PM] wbprugh: Remind me what the abbreviation M* stands for, I know I'll
[09:34 PM] bob76109: aye
[09:34 PM] wbprugh: yes
[09:34 PM] Jason: MOrningstar
[09:34 PM] NYC But4U: aye
[09:34 PM] Jason: took me a minute to remember too
[09:34 PM] wbprugh: Of course.
[09:34 PM] BrianLWA: Sry!
[09:34 PM] BrianLWA: Oops, Sorry! <g>
[09:35 PM] Jason: I was going to translate that too :)
[09:35 PM] Jason: motion passes to add FISV to watch list, Randy will be
[09:35 PM] Jason: The agenda says the Red Team is up....
[09:35 PM] Jason: is that right?
[09:36 PM] holtinpa: Tonight?
[09:36 PM] Jason: yeah, we never received a report from them
[09:37 PM] *** NYC But4U has left the chat.
[09:37 PM] mosycat2: OK, ok, I thought we went to one team a month??
[09:37 PM] Jason: if anyone was assigned... maybe that was from December
[09:37 PM] Jason: oh yeah
[09:37 PM] Jason: that's right Karen
[09:37 PM] mosycat2: I'm getting confused...
[09:37 PM] *** NYC But4U has been invited to the group chat.
[09:38 PM] Jason: I think the agenda was just wrong
[09:38 PM] Jason: Do we have any new business?
[09:38 PM] mosycat2: Randy, could you repost the schedule to the list for us?
[09:38 PM] holtinpa: We only have one team a month. I will work on getting the
[09:39 PM] mosycat2: We have several BUY candidates from the PERT
summary...anyone want to spend some money? That's the only new business I can
[09:39 PM] Jason: I remember seeing the schedule.... should have saved it
[09:39 PM] holtinpa: I need to sign off. It was fun getting my stock busted on!
I learned alot. Thanks
[09:39 PM] Jason: I was thinking the same Karen
[09:39 PM] Jason: ok, 'night Randy
[09:39 PM] *** holtinpa has left the chat.
[09:40 PM] Jason: I believe we can still make decisions as long as we started
with a quroum
[09:40 PM] BrianLWA: Can someone remind us of how much cash we have burning a
hole in our collective pocket?
[09:40 PM] Jason: that's how the PA reads anyway
[09:40 PM] Jason: we have $4500
[09:41 PM] Jason: NYB could be a good candidate
[09:41 PM] Jason: from the watch list
[09:41 PM] mosycat2: Yes, the quorum holds for the meeting. majority consists of
those left to vote
[09:41 PM] mosycat2: I haven't seen an updated SSG on NYB in a long time
[09:41 PM] Jason: so if the rest of you want to leave, I'll spend this money
very promptly :)
[09:41 PM] BrianLWA: All of our current holdings represent between a percentage
of the portfolio in the teens. I.e., there aren't any positions to particularly
[09:42 PM] Jason: yes, I've been more concerned about finding a job, but I'd
like to see what NYB's ssg looks like because the stock has been hit prettyhard
<Discussion of BBBY>
[09:42 PM] BrianLWA: I'm happy with the BBBY numbers to buy more shares and
become somewhat overweighted there for a while.
[09:43 PM] wbprugh: I have been invited to speak at the K C Investory's Fair
about CTCOLIC and to give an online deom of the club.
[09:43 PM] mosycat2: I could go for that brian
[09:43 PM] wbprugh: Do you think we could conduct a mock online Chat to show
them how it works?
[09:43 PM] BrianLWA: That's scary. The blind leading ... 8-)
[09:44 PM] wbprugh: Hey, easy there, we midwesterners bruise easily.
[09:44 PM] mosycat2: LOL. I make a mtion we purchase 50 shares of BBBY
[09:44 PM] Jason: I thought midwesterners were toughened by the winters
[09:44 PM] BrianLWA: second
[09:44 PM] *** joancentralOR has been invited to the group chat.
[09:44 PM] *** joancentralOR has joined the chat.
[09:45 PM] Jason: what are you seconding, Brian?
[09:45 PM] Jason: hi Joan
<Confusion Probably Resulting From Me Not Specifically Specifying If I Was
Referring to FISV or BBBY in Each Sentence... Words Are So Confusing Sometimes:)
[09:45 PM] joancentralOR: Hi Everybody - sure sorry about not getting here
[09:45 PM] wbprugh: Maybe we should update Joan before we do anything important!
[09:45 PM] Jason: Randy has already left... had a good discussion on FISV
[09:45 PM] joancentralOR: I'd be glad for you to do that.
[09:45 PM] mosycat2: Jason!
[09:45 PM] joancentralOR: What did you decide concerning FISV
[09:46 PM] mosycat2: I motioned to purchase 50 shares of BBBY, and Brian
[09:46 PM] Jason: We have added FISV to the watch list
[09:46 PM] Jason: Randy will be watchin git
[09:46 PM] Jason: sorry, I just now saw the motion to buy BBBY
[09:46 PM] Jason: I was busy replying to the comment about midwesterners :)
[09:46 PM] wbprugh: Hey, pay attention to the proceedings.
<Confusion Hopefully Clarified, Back to Motion to Buy BBBY>
[09:47 PM] Jason: right now there is a motion on the floor to buy 50 shares of
BBBY that Brian has seconded
[09:47 PM] joancentralOR: Decidion was not to buy FISV?
[09:47 PM] joancentralOR: Okay, thanks. re motion on BBBY
[09:47 PM] Jason: not right now... we wanted to keep an eye on how growth will
[09:48 PM] Jason: Is there any discussion concerning BBBY?
[09:48 PM] joancentralOR: of FISV or BBBY?
[09:48 PM] joancentralOR: What are the factors which would indicate not to buy
[09:48 PM] wbprugh: Watch FISV buy BBBY
[09:49 PM] Jason: sorry, wanted to see how FISV's growth would develop,
especially concerning acquisitions
[09:49 PM] BrianLWA: No one is arguing that we shouldn't buy any, Joan. Or at
least, not so far.
[09:49 PM] joancentralOR: Good decision on FISV.
[09:49 PM] joancentralOR: I"m simply wanting to know what the negative factors
are . . .
[09:49 PM] Jason: the PERT is showing a buy on BBBY... it's definitely doing
better than Pier One :)
[09:50 PM] Jason: the only negative I can say about BBBY is the price... it's
not a bargain, but I think it's low enough to be worth the investment
[09:50 PM] BrianLWA: Negatives: I guess I can go out to my broker for a report
or you can go out to yours. Since you're the one asking ... ! :-P
[09:51 PM] joancentralOR: I'm doing that right now.
[09:51 PM] joancentralOR: I was hoping the BBBY stockwatcher could tell me.
[09:51 PM] Jason: but my point is just that BBBY isn't going to be a bargin,
like I hope Pier One is, unless something does go wrong :)
[09:52 PM] wbprugh: I think Brian last updated BBBY according to my notes (or at
least he updated it).
[09:52 PM] BrianLWA: Risks per S&P: "Risks to our target price and
recommendation include a potential slowdown in the U.S. economy,"
[09:52 PM] BrianLWA: "an unanticipated shift in consumer spending away from
home-centered products, and possible miscues in BBBY’s store expansion
[09:53 PM] joancentralOR: Thanks. Brian.
[09:54 PM] Jason: ok, calling the vote on BBBY
[09:54 PM] BrianLWA: Some risks re: Argus: "We believe the main risk facing the
company is a decline in the rate of growth that would cause shareholders to
reevaluate the price they are willing to pay for the shares."
[09:55 PM] BrianLWA: "Competition is another issue which concerns us. In
addition to its direct rival Linens 'n Things, BBBY also faces competition from
high-end, department stores. "
[09:55 PM] BrianLWA: "At this point, we are more concerned about rising
competition from stores such as Wal-Mart, Target, Kohl's and JC Penney. balance
sheet at the end of November. "
[09:55 PM] BrianLWA: They also mention saturation as a risk.
[09:55 PM] BrianLWA: Vote: Aye
[09:55 PM] Jason: 50 shares at about $40, which will spend about $2000 of our
[09:55 PM] Jason: vote: aye
[09:55 PM] bob76109: aye
[09:55 PM] mosycat2: aye
[09:55 PM] joancentralOR: aye
[09:56 PM] Jason: 5 ayes, 1 not recorded
[09:57 PM] Jason: motion passes to buy BBBY
[09:57 PM] wbprugh: yes, sorry
[09:57 PM] Jason: 6 ayes
[09:57 PM] Jason: I'll send an email to the list so Larry will know to make the
[09:58 PM] Jason: Is there any other new business?
<Motion to Adjourn Meeting>
[09:58 PM] Jason: I move to adjourn the meeting
[09:58 PM] BrianLWA: Second
[09:58 PM] wbprugh: Too soon to consider impeachment, right? :-)
[09:58 PM] BrianLWA: Sadly, yes.
[09:59 PM] Jason: you guys are harsh :)
[09:59 PM] BrianLWA: Feel the love, Jason, feel the love.
[09:59 PM] Jason: just because I wanted to watch a little Amazing RAce
[09:59 PM] mosycat2: it just got over Jason
[09:59 PM] Jason: calling vote to adjourn meeting
[09:59 PM] Jason: aye
[09:59 PM] bob76109: aye
[10:00 PM] joancentralOR: aye
[10:00 PM] mosycat2: aye
[10:00 PM] BrianLWA: aye
[10:01 PM] Jason: meetin' is adjourned
[10:01 PM] *** mosycat2 has left the chat.
[10:01 PM] BrianLWA: I hope everyone's 2005 has started off nicely, and that you
haven't already broken all of your 2005 resolutions yet. Good night!